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BBC NEWS | Business | 'Progress' on Taiwan travel links NEWS SPORT WEATHER WORLD SERVICE WHERE I LIVE -- A-Z INDEX SEARCH You are in: Business News Front Page Africa Americas Asia-Pacific Europe Middle East South Asia UK Business E-Commerce Economy Market Data Entertainment Science/Nature Technology Health ------------- Talking Point ------------- Country Profiles In Depth ------------- Programmes ------------- SERVICES Daily E-mail News Ticker Mobile/PDAs ------------- Text Only Feedback Help EDITIONS Change to UK Thursday, 17 October, 2002, 07:00 GMT 08:00 UK 'Progress' on Taiwan travel links Direct transport links could help ease economic woes Taiwanese officials have given a positive reception to a proposal from China to ease the way towards re-establishing direct transport links with the mainland. In an interview with a Taiwan newspaper, China's Vice Premier Qian Qichen suggested transport links could be described as "cross-strait" rather than "domestic". Verbal distinctions have played an important role in hostilities between Beijing and Taipei, whose leaders say they are heading a sovereign state, the Republic of China. Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bian had rejected the use of the word "domestic", saying it would "belittle, provincialise and marginalise" Taiwan. 'Worth encouraging' Taiwan's Cabinet decided last year that it wanted to restore direct transport to the mainland for the first time in more than 50 years. Direct transport links were severed after the Communist victory in China's civil war in 1949. Two high-ranking Taiwanese officials have welcomed Mr Qian's proposal, though the Cabinet-level Mainland Affairs Council has declined to comment. "The change is worth encouraging," said Chiou I-jen,secretary-general of the National Security Council. He told a parliamentary sub-committee that the shift was a goodwill gesture. "But details need to be discussed by both sides," he added. Taiwan's transport minister, Lin Lin-san, also welcomed the proposal: "I think labelling them as cross-strait routes is a positive concept. It is progress." New policy Taiwan's Cabinet is in the midst of an internal discussion on how to re-open direct transport, trade and postal services and is due to complete its review of the issue by November. Taiwan has already lifted a ceiling on mainland investment by Taiwanese firms and allowed them to invest directly in China rather than via a third country. It has also eased curbs on mainland investment by the sensitive semi-conductor industry, which forms the backbone of Taiwan's economy. In the interview with popular Taiwan paper United Daily News, Mr Qian maintained Beijing's insistence on the need for Taiwan to "recognise 'one China' before we can enter into political negotiations". "But the three links does not need political negotiations, it is an economic issue," he added. "Therefore talks can proceed." WTO membership deal Deal done in Doha China enters WTO fold Final accord at hand Insurance row settled WTO 'breakthrough' Deal's history EU resolves differences US clinches deal US Congress votes EU-China agree deal US signs historic deal Analysis Consumer revolution Migrants flood cities Entry to boost growth Extra gains for US, EU Price controls cut Boon for stock market China's US trade critics Case Studies Bamboo coffin exports Olympic tourism hopes Dog food brand plan See also: 07 Nov 01 | Business Taiwan eases China trade restrictions 19 Oct 01 | Business Asia braced for China's WTO entry 13 Aug 01 | Business Taiwan to free up China investment 12 Aug 01 | Asia-Pacific New party to reshape Taiwan politics 10 Aug 01 | Asia-Pacific Taiwan denies UN bid threatens China 06 Aug 01 | Country profiles Country profile: Taiwan Top Business stories now: Hacker breaches credit card security Job losses escalate at Reuters New SEC chief pledges tough line Oil prices push higher Rwanda denies DRC plundering Overseas sales drive Wal-Mart Congo's finance minister resigns Blair keeps euro options open Links to more Business stories are at the foot of the page. E-mail this story to a friend Links to more Business stories In This Section Hacker breaches credit card security Job losses escalate at Reuters New SEC chief pledges tough line Oil prices push higher Rwanda denies DRC plundering Overseas sales drive Wal-Mart Congo's finance minister resigns Blair keeps euro options open ^^ Back to top News Front Page | Africa | Americas | Asia-Pacific | Europe | Middle East | South Asia | UK | Business | Entertainment | Science/Nature | Technology | Health | Talking Point | Country Profiles | In Depth | Programmes ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- To BBC Sport>> | To BBC Weather>> | To BBC World Service>> ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- © MMIII | News Sources | Privacy
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Chicago Hotel Deals - Unbiased Reviews - TripAdvisor Chicago Hotel Deals and TripAdvisor SmartDeals Sign in • Sign up Home > United States > Illinois > Chicago > SmartDeals Chicago tourism: Overview Hotels Flights Attractions Dining Deals Getaways Forums Maps, etc. Discount hotels | Hotel + air deals | All travel offers Search (e.g., Chicago hotels, Las Vegas, Paris art museum) Chicago Chicago Overview Chicago Hotels Flights to Chicago Chicago Deals Discount hotels Hotel + air deals All travel offers Chicago Attractions Chicago Restaurants Chicago Forum Chicago Maps Chicago Discount Hotels Chicago Vacation Packages Free Newsletter Get deals, news and articles on Chicago Plus weekend trip ideas from your hometown e-mail this page to a friend Popular hotel deals Acapulco hotel deals Alaska hotel deals Amsterdam hotel deals Anaheim hotel deals Arizona hotel deals Aruba hotel deals Aspen hotel deals Atlanta hotel deals Atlantic City hotel deals Bahamas hotel deals Barbados hotel deals Belgium hotel deals Bermuda hotel deals Boston hotel deals Branson hotel deals Breckenridge hotel deals British Virgin Islands hotel deals Cabo San Lucas hotel deals California hotel deals Canada hotel deals Cancun hotel deals Caribbean hotel deals Colorado hotel deals Costa del Sol hotel deals Cozumel hotel deals Dallas hotel deals Daytona Beach hotel deals Dominican Republic hotel deals Florida hotel deals Florida Keys hotel deals Fort Lauderdale hotel deals France hotel deals Germany hotel deals Grand Canyon National Park hotel deals Greece hotel deals Grenada hotel deals Hawaii hotel deals Hilton Head hotel deals Ibiza hotel deals Ireland hotel deals Italy hotel deals Ixtapa hotel deals Jamaica hotel deals Kauai hotel deals Key West hotel deals Lake Placid hotel deals Lake Tahoe hotel deals Las Vegas hotel deals London hotel deals Los Angeles hotel deals Los Cabos hotel deals Maui hotel deals Mazatlan hotel deals Melbourne hotel deals Mexico hotel deals Miami hotel deals Montreal hotel deals Myrtle Beach hotel deals Nashville hotel deals Nassau hotel deals New York hotel deals New York City hotel deals Niagara Falls hotel deals Nova Scotia hotel deals Oahu hotel deals Orlando hotel deals Paris hotel deals Park City hotel deals Philadelphia hotel deals Phoenix hotel deals Pigeon Forge hotel deals Puerto Rico hotel deals Puerto Vallarta hotel deals Punta Cana hotel deals Quebec City hotel deals Reno hotel deals Rome hotel deals Salt Lake City hotel deals San Antonio hotel deals San Diego hotel deals San Francisco hotel deals Santa Fe hotel deals Scotland hotel deals Seattle hotel deals Spain hotel deals St. Croix hotel deals St. Lucia hotel deals St. Maarten/St. Martin hotel deals St. Thomas hotel deals Sydney hotel deals Texas hotel deals Toronto hotel deals Tucson hotel deals U.S. Virgin Islands hotel deals Vail hotel deals Virginia Beach hotel deals Washington DC hotel deals Whistler hotel deals Read more Chicago tourism Chicago Hotel Deals and TripAdvisor SmartDeals The Windy City has hotels, attractions and entertainment to fit all tastes and budgets. 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Swiss Rail Improvements 2005 - Switzerland Train Travel Gets Faster and More Comfortable You are here: About > Travel > Europe for Visitors > Germany Austria Switzerland > Switzerland Travel Guide > Swiss Rail Improvements 2005 - Switzerland Train Travel Gets Faster and More Comfortable Travel Go Europe Essentials European Vacation Planning Map Europe Travel 101 - Before you Go European Distances The Best of Europe European Photo Gallery Articles & Resources Europe Travel Planning What to do In Europe Lodging - Hotels and More European Travel Maps Sex and Nudism Travel Photography Transportation Benelux Countries France Germany Austria Switzerland Greece Italy and Malta Travel Info Scandinavian Travel Spain and Portugal United Kingdom and Ireland Buyer's Guide Before You Buy Top Picks Italy Travel Guidebooks Europe Travel Guidebooks German Travel Guidebooks Product Reviews Forums Help FREE Newsletter Sign Up Now for the Europe for Visitors newsletter! See Online Courses Search Europe for Visitors Switzerland Fast Rail Travel: Swiss Tilting Train Photo provided by RailEurope Stay up to date! Switzerland Fast Rail Travel: Swiss Tilting Train Photo provided by RailEurope Email to a friend Print this page Switzerland Travel Resources Switzerland Travel Directory Switzerland Travel Map and Resources Swiss Rail Pass and Transportation Information Switzerland Rail Travel Resources Rail 2000 Information from Swiss Rail SSB Switzerland Rail Passes Swiss Rail SSB Recent Discussions Need Help Planning a Trip Accomodation in london Mediteranean Feries Most Popular Europe Map - Distances Between Cities in Western Europe Europe's Best Nudist Beaches Europe Picture Galleries Italy Pictures Europe Travel 101 - Before You Travel to Europe for the Firs... What's Hot Power Adapters Noord-Holland - Delights of North Holland Travel Visiting Pompeii Italy Guidebooks Naples - Getting There Related Topics France for Visitors Greece for Visitors United Kingdom / Ireland for Visitors Eastern Europe for Visitors Italy for Visitors Switzerland Rail Travel - What's New in Swiss Trains and Timetables From James Martin , Your Guide to Europe for Visitors . FREE Newsletter. Sign Up Now! Aug 28 2005 Travel in Switzerland just got easier Switzerland's rail system is undergoing an expansion program called Rail 2000. What's in it for the traveler to Switzerland? Shorter travel times, more frequent service - including half-hourly departures between major cities - and greater comfort on a growing number of new and refurbished trains. You can get to Switzerland's major airports by train, and in 2005 it'll be easier and more convenient. In early morning on Swiss rail, some cars are designated "quiet cars" where even talking is prohibited--and it's enforced. Switzerland also offers some of the most innovative rail passes in Europe (see below). The New Timetables for Switzerland Trains Starting December 12, 90% of Switzerland's trains will run on a new timetable with half-hourly service between all major cities. To simplify travel planning, arrivals and departures will be on the hour and the half-hour in major hubs (such as Zurich, Basel, Bern). Shorter Travel Times on Swiss Rail The core infrastructure project of Rail 2000 responsible for reducing travel times is the recently completed 29 mile-long rail line between Bern and Olten. This line allows trains to travel at 100 mph and shaves 15 minutes off travel times between Bern-Zurich, Bern-Basel and Bern-Lucerne. When a new signaling system becomes operational, trains will run at 124 mph. The new line enables all travel times within the Bern-Basel-Zurich triangle to be less than one hour. Other Rail 2000 construction projects helping to reduce travel times are a new tunnel between Zurich and Thalwil and a new track between Geneva and Coppet, both already in service. The New Fleet of Trains 44 sleek tilting ICN trains traveling up to 15% faster than conventional trains and featuring a restaurant car and business class compartments, as well as 1st and 2nd class compartments; see the picture above. 340 double-decker Intercity trains, with 1st and 2nd class compartments and business seats, and on certain routes a child-friendly family car, bistro/bar on the lower deck and restaurant on the upper deck; 460 refurbished Intercity trains with 1st and 2nd class compartments Improved service to tourist destinations Most alpine tourist destinations will offer faster, more direct service to/from Zurich and Geneva and their airports: Interlaken - Half-hourly service to/from Zurich Airport (now hourly), 15 minutes shorter time. Zermatt and Saas Fee - Reach Zermatt up to 30 minutes faster from Zurich Airport. New direct service Zurich Airport-Brig every other hour means only one change (now two) to go to either resort. Lausanne, Montreux, Aigle, Martigny, Sion - Half-hourly service to/from Geneva Airport. Davos, St. Moritz, Arosa - Hourly non-stop trains Zurich-Landquart and better connections in Chur or Landquart make the trip to/from Zurich up to 25 minutes faster. Trains on these routes will also have more space for sports equipment and luggage than currently. Locarno - New direct train every hour from either Basel or Zurich. Switzerland Rail Passes There are quite a few options for the traveler these days. You can buy a Swiss Pass with different durations and savings, or you can buy combo passes that combine travel on Swiss Railways with other bordering countries (currently France and Austria). For information on Rail Passes in Switzerland on one handy page, see Rail Europe: Switzerland Rail Passes . Perhaps the most interesting of the services provided is the Fly Rail Baggage option. For $15 US you can check in your luggage at the airport, make your way to the train and pick up your luggage there. Imagine, you don't have to lug all your bags from your destination to the train station! For more on selecting a Swiss rail pass, see our Swiss Rail Pass and Switzerland Transportation Information . Topic Index | Email to a Friend Our Story | Be a Guide | Advertising Info | Work at About | Site Map | Icons | Help User Agreement | Ethics Policy | Patent Info. | Privacy Policy | Kids' Privacy Policy ©2005 About, Inc., A part of the New York Times Company . All rights reserved. Around About New Video iPod - Review POLL: Must-Have Gadgets VIDEO: Portable Gaming VIDEO: Choosing a TV Hugh Hefner's Life What's Hot Power Adapters Noord-Holland - Delights of North Holland Travel Visiting Pompeii Italy Guidebooks Naples - Getting There
European Vacation There's a
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis - The Region - European Vacation (December 2003) I'm at: Home > Publications > The Region > December 2003 > Article Publications Expand All Collapse All The Region Index by Issue Interviews President's Columns fedgazette Index by Issue Topics Index Annual Report Quarterly Review Community Dividend Banking and Policy Studies Articles Toolbox ( advanced search ) December 2003 European Vacation There's a simple reason Americans work longer hours than Europeans, says economist Ed Prescott. And it isn't what you think Douglas Clement Editor It's no secret that Europeans work less than Americans do. Every Labor Day the media tell us that Europeans have just enjoyed weeks of summer vacation while Americans have been toiling away. These stories often depict Americans as hard-working drones who revere material possessions above all else. Europeans meanwhile bask in the good life of long lunches and months at the beach. There is some truth to the portrayal, at least in terms of hours worked. The International Labor Organization reports that the average American worked 1,815 hours in 2002, well above the comparable figures for France (1,545) and Germany (1,444), for example. (The average South Korean, on the other hand, worked over 2,400 hours.) But if it's widely acknowledged that Americans work more hours than Europeans, it remains a puzzle quite why there's such a large difference. With similar economies and social structures—at least relative to the rest of the world—it would seem that labor patterns should also be alike. Social scientists have been hard-pressed to explain the disparity. Most accounts focus on cultural explanations. The most popular is the notion that Europeans have a fuller appreciation of la dolce vita —the sweet life—the Italian version of the idea that life is to be enjoyed, not endured. Work is a means to an end, not an end in itself. The idea of cultural and religious influences on economic activity isn't new. German sociologist Max Weber wrote The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism nearly a century ago, attributing the rise of capitalist economies to the “Protestant work ethic.” It was an immensely persuasive theory in its time, and derivative explanations have held great sway ever since. “Why do Europeans and Americans differ so much in their attitude toward work and leisure? I can think of two reasons,” opines a recent Time magazine essay. “Broadly speaking, Americans value stuff—SUVs, 7,000-sq.-ft. houses—more than they value time, while for Europeans it's the opposite. Second, ... in the puritanical version of Christianity that has always appealed to Americans, religion comes packaged with the stern message that hard work is good for the soul. Modern Europe has avoided so melancholy a lesson.” “It all comes down to what people feel is important and how they feel about their lives,” argues a September 2003 U.S. News & World Report editorial. “We value more money and more stuff; they value more leisure time. ... We are proud of being busy—it is a virtue; being idle is perceived as a vice.” Economic explanations Economists have always been suspect of such cultural explanations. Standard economic theory assumes that people's preferences are, on average, homogeneous, and that choices depend largely on economic factors. Still, while economists agree that dollars and cents lie behind the work pattern differential, there is little harmony among them as to the right economic explanation. Some economists say work regulations keep Europeans from working longer hours and point favorably to recent European reforms on vacation time. Others argue that greater inequality in the United States motivates workers to try harder to get ahead. Most of these explanations come from the perspective of labor economics and its core belief that social structures and institutions such as unions are the major determinants of labor patterns. But in a recent series of papers and lectures, Edward C. Prescott, senior monetary adviser to the Minneapolis Fed and economist at Arizona State University, looks at the labor supply question through the prism of the growth model—a different perspective altogether—and provides a convincing and remarkably straightforward explanation for the dramatic differences in hours worked. It is an explanation that has far-reaching implications for policymakers—and for anyone else who's ever received a paycheck. According to Prescott, the reason for these large differences in labor supply is not culture. “French, Japanese, and U.S. workers all have similar preferences,” he writes. “The French are not better at enjoying leisure. The Japanese are not compulsive savers.” The reason for the wide range in working hours is, in a word, taxes. Europeans supply less labor because there's a much larger wedge in most European countries between what a worker is paid and what that worker actually gets to keep after taxes are taken out. This tax wedge, argues Prescott, distorts the trade-off people make between consumption and leisure by making consumption more expensive. And since people work, ultimately, to earn money to pay for consumption goods, they'll supply less labor if consumption goods become relatively more expensive. The cheaper alternative: leisure. Hello, Riviera. If the concept seems straightforward, its evolution was anything but. Like most ideas that seem obvious in retrospect, the awareness that taxes distort labor markets dramatically and account for major international differences in work patterns came about indirectly and as a revelation to those who happened upon it. The discovery Prescott's discovery about the role of taxes in labor supply variation began, simply enough, in his classroom at the University of Minnesota, where he taught from 1980 to 2003. “I was making up exercises for my students,” he recalled in a recent interview. “I said, 'use this nice little growth model.'” The “nice little model” he presented to his students is the workhorse of modern macroeconomics; it says, mathematically, that a nation's total output (or gross domestic product, GDP) is dependent on three sources: labor, capital and the efficiency (or productivity) with which it merges them to create economic value. The other key part of this standard theory is, in the jargon of economics, a utility function: a formula representing the notion that households try to maximize their happiness by finding the best possible combination of leisure and consumption, given their resources. Prescott wanted his students to become familiar with this model by looking at how it performed in different nations over time, and how key variables—capital endowments, productivity, labor supply—could account for differences among nations in per capita GDP. “I wanted to try to get across the basic ideas and the importance of productivity,” said Prescott. “And then I thought, let's put a few taxes in.” The intuition was far more significant than Prescott suspected, but that became clear only after looking at the relative contributions of capital, productivity and labor. The data, compiled by the United Nations and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, showed that in the mid-1990s among developed countries—the United States, much of Europe and Japan—relative levels of capital differ little and explain just a small portion of the variation in per capita GDP (see adjacent table). “The capital factor is not an important factor in accounting for differences in incomes across the OECD countries,” writes Prescott in his 2002 Richard T. Ely Lecture to the American Economic Association. “[It] contributes at most 8 percent to the differences in income between any of these countries.” Capital, Labor, Productivity and GDP 1993-96 Country Capital/ Output Ratio (1990) Hours worked per Week per Person 15-64 Productivity: GDP per hour Worked; US=100 GDP per Person 15-64; US=100 Germany 2.7 19.3 99 74 France 2.2 17.5 110 74 Italy 2.6 16.5 90 57 Canada na 22.9 89 79 United Kingdom 2.6 22.8 76 67 Japan 2.5 27.0 74 78 United States 2.3 25.9 100 100 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Research Department Staff Report 321 and Working Paper 618 . Productivity, on the other hand, is very important, at least for some national differences. Japan and the United States, for example, have similar levels of labor and capital, but per capita GDP in Japan is far below that in the United States because its productivity is less than three-quarters that of the United States. But what of European countries like France, Italy and Germany? Why are their levels of per capita GDP so much lower? All these nations have capital endowments comparable to the United States. Their productivity levels also are similar to U.S. rates, or in the case of France, even higher. The data suggest that the differences in wealth are due almost exclusively to the markedly lower number of hours worked in these European countries. Germany, for instance, had a slightly higher capital endowment than the United States and an equal level of productivity, but just 74 percent of the U.S. per capita GDP. The evident reason: Its workers supplied just over 19 hours of labor per week compared to nearly 26 hours a week per American worker. While many believe that cultural differences lead to fewer hours worked in Europe than in the United States, Prescott doubts it. After all, data from the early 1970s show that the French actually worked more hours per week than did Americans at that time. Has French culture changed radically over the last two decades? Probably not: They still like good wine, aged cheese and, inexplicably, Jerry Lewis. Prescott's hunch was that differences in marginal tax rates might explain the differences in labor supplied and thus account for differences in per capita GDP. Enter the tax wedge “What is important is the price of consumption relative to leisure,” Prescott writes in the lecture he gave in April 2003 as he accepted Northwestern University's prestigious Erwin Plein Nemmers Prize in Economics. “And it is determined by the consumption tax rate and the labor income tax rate.” (See the lecture, “ Why Do Americans Work So Much More Than Europeans? ”) By introducing these taxes into the growth model, and making standard microeconomic assumptions, Prescott derived what he calls “the key equilibrium relation.” 1 It's a mathematical formula for labor supply that says workers will supply labor dependent on, among other things, their preference for consumption now over consumption later (spend or save?), their preference for leisure relative to consumption (play or work?) and the effective tax rate. Holding the first two variables fixed and looking empirically at different national tax rates enables Prescott to see if tax differences can account, fully or partially, for variations in labor hours supplied. Estimating the effective tax rates in these countries was, in itself, a major accounting exercise. Consumption taxes include value-added taxes, sales taxes, excise taxes and property taxes. Labor is subject to both income taxes and Social Security taxes. For each nation under consideration, Prescott and his students crunched the numbers, determined a tax rate, plugged it into the formula along with fixed estimates of the other variables, and derived predictions of labor hours supplied per week per worker. How good were the predictions? Dead-on for Germany and the United Kingdom, a bit low for Canada and the United States, and a bit high for the other countries (see table below). Given measurement inaccuracies, the rough nature of the tax-rate estimates and the difficulty of international comparisons, writes Prescott, the model's predictions were “surprisingly close to the actual.” Tax Rates and Labor Supply 1993-96 Country Tax Rate (percent) Actual Hours Worked per Week per Person 15-64 Predicted Hours Worked per Week per Person 15-64 Difference (Predicted Minus Actual) Germany 59 19.3 19.5 0.2 France 59 17.5 19.5 2.0 Italy 64 16.5 18.8 2.3 Canada 52 22.9 21.3 -1.6 United Kingdom 44 22.8 22.8 0.0 Japan 37 27.0 29.0 2.0 United States 40 25.9 24.6 -1.3 Source: “ Why Do Americans Work So Much More Than Europeans ?” Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Research Department Staff Report 321. Here, notes Prescott, “the important observation is that the low labor supplies in Germany, France and Italy are due to high tax rates. In these countries if someone works more and produces 100 additional euros of output, that individual gets to consume only 40 euros of additional consumption and pays directly or indirectly 60 euros in taxes.” Put in such stark terms, it seems obvious that many Europeans might opt to work less, while Americans and Japanese, taxed more lightly, would be keen to put in extra hours. Confirmation and implications Prescott found further confirmation for his hypothesis when he looked at tax rates and labor supply in the early 1970s (see table below). While his model's predictions of labor hours supplied diverge from the actual in several cases—Italy and Japan, in particular—Prescott observes that “when European and U.S. tax rates were comparable, European and U.S. labor supplies were roughly equal.” Tax Rates and Labor Supply 1970-74 Country Tax Rate (percent) Actual Hours Worked per Week per Person 15-64 Predicted Hours Worked per Week per Person 15-64 Difference (Predicted Minus Actual) Germany 52 24.6 24.6 0.0 France 49 24.4 25.4 1.0 Italy 41 19.2 28.3 9.1 Canada 44 22.2 25.6 3.4 United Kingdom 45 25.9 24.0 -1.9 Japan 25 29.8 35.8 6.0 United States 40 23.5 26.4 2.9 Source: “ Why Do Americans Work So Much More Than Europeans ?” Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Research Department Staff Report 321. As for the outliers, Italy and Japan, Prescott suggests that other factors may be significant. In Italy, cartels may have played a role in depressing labor supply below its predicted value. In Japan, significant measurement errors in actual hours worked could account for the overly high prediction by the model. And what seems another anomaly is very likely an indirect confirmation of the importance of marginal tax rates on labor supply, according to Prescott. In the United States, actual hours worked per person increased by 10 percent from the 1970s to the 1990s, though the marginal tax rate remained at 40 percent. Prescott argues that U.S. tax reforms in the 1980s changed the effective marginal tax faced by married couples—dropping the rate in half for the second earner's income—even though it remained nominally at 40 percent. “In the 1993-96 [period],” he writes, “the marginal income tax on the labor income associated with switching between a one-earner and a two-earner household is only 20 percent, not 40 percent.” The issue warrants more attention, he says, and indeed, his colleagues Larry Jones, Rodolfo Manuelli and Ellen McGrattan have recently released a paper on this exact question. (See “ Wives at Work .”) On the whole, Prescott states, the results show that “people are remarkably similar across countries” and not only for these relatively prosperous and homogeneous nations, but for Chile, Mexico and Argentina, as well, where other economists have found similar relationships. “Apparently, idiosyncratic preference differences average out and result in the [representative] household having almost identical preferences across countries.” The policy implications are enormous for high-tax countries. If France were to lower its effective tax rate from 60 percent to 40 percent, estimates Prescott, its people would work more (taking 6.6 percent less leisure) and—remember their high productivity?—would generate considerably more output. Tax revenues wouldn't diminish, because the 40 percent rate would be levied on a higher base. And overall French “welfare gains,” as economists put it, would increase nearly 20 percent. In the United States, reducing marginal tax rates would have a more modest impact, according to the model: A 10 percent rate reduction would produce a 7 percent welfare gain. But even in the United States, Prescott's findings have huge implications for the viability of the Social Security system. (See “ Shrinking a deadweight loss .”) Foreign affairs In recent months, Prescott has traveled widely, presenting his findings not only to American audiences but to economists and policymakers in London, Berlin, Toulouse, Tokyo and elsewhere overseas. And in fact, says Prescott, Europeans tend to be more receptive than Americans. “The economists there understand that there is a problem,” he said after returning from France in mid-September. “I got some excellent suggestions when I presented the paper, the best so far.” But at all venues, he observes, the common denominator is surprise. Prescott is the first to admit that he, too, thought the results were startling, unexpected. “I find it remarkable that virtually all of the large difference in labor supply between France and the United States is due to differences in tax systems,” he writes in his Ely lecture. “I expected institutional constraints on the operation of labor markets and the nature of the unemployment benefit system to be more important.” Moreover, he concedes that cultural explanations might carry the day in a few settings. “Scandinavians seem to be a little bit different,” he said recently, referring to research by Richard Rogerson, an economist at Arizona State University. “My theory is when one of those Swedes looks at you when you're not working, it's pretty intimidating.” More seriously, he allows that in small, homogeneous cultures, social pressures can be quite strong. But even in large, heterogeneous nations, tax wedges don't always tell the whole story, according to Prescott. “Taxes are not the only reason that the labor factors differ,” says Prescott's Ely lecture. Unemployment benefits and housing subsidies—not taxes—distorted labor mobility in the United Kingdom between the first and second World Wars, contributing significantly to that country's interwar depression. New Deal policies supporting cartels in America's heavy industries distorted wages and employment in the last half of the 1930s, contributing to the depth and duration of the Great Depression in the United States. Similarly, cartels in 1970s Italy may have suppressed employment there. Prescott relies on work by University of California, Los Angeles economists Harold Cole and Lee Ohanian in making these conjectures. Still, while taxes aren't the all-powerful explanatory factor for all nations and eras, Prescott contends that in major developed countries in the time period under consideration, the labor supply impact of tax wedges is a powerful and undeniable fact. Other academics As befits the work of any prominent scholar, Prescott's theory has attracted close academic scrutiny—beyond the initial reaction of surprise—from both adherents and critics. In one recent paper, Peter Lindert, an economist at the University of California, Davis, refers to Prescott's study as dependent upon “a theoretical model heavily laden with assumptions. It is educated, intelligent, plausible fiction—but fiction nonetheless.” On the other hand (as Lindert points out) Prescott's model and findings are cited quite favorably by Nobel Laureate Robert Lucas in his 2003 presidential address to the American Economic Association. Lindert calls for empirical tests. Steven Davis at the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business and Magnus Henrekson of the Stockholm School of Economics oblige with a careful econometric analysis of the impact of labor income and consumption taxes on employment and work activity. In their study of rich countries in the mid-1990s, they find that a 12.8 percentage point difference in tax rates is associated with 122 fewer market work hours per adult per year and nearly a 5 percentage point decrease in employment—population ratios—an indirect affirmation of Prescott's theory. A very different perspective was presented earlier this year in a series of lectures by British economist Richard Layard, co-director of the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics. Layard takes issue with GDP itself as a satisfactory measure of human welfare—or utility, as Jeremy Bentham and subsequent economists have termed it—noting that “happiness has not increased, despite huge increases in living standards.” To summarize a lengthy argument, Layard's idea is that a tax wedge on labor income could actually increase utility by decreasing a sort of pollution: overwork brought on by the inherent human desire to do better than our peers, regardless of our absolute level of income. Keeping up with the Joneses, in other words, leads to overwork, ill health and unhappiness—rivalry distorts the leisure/labor decision. Appropriate public policy should diminish this pollution by taxing it. “In an efficient economy,” Layard writes, “there will be substantial levels of corrective taxation ... 60 percent would not seem inappropriate, and that is in fact the typical level of marginal taxation in Europe—if you allow for direct and indirect taxes.” Prescott responds Prescott's reactions to these ideas vary widely. Sitting in his seventh-floor office at the Minneapolis Fed, he reads through the first pages of Lindert's paper, then drops it on his desk. “It doesn't seem to be coherent,” he says. Davis and Henrekson's study, on the other hand, intrigues him. That might seem predictable given its broad support of Prescott's findings, but Davis and Henrekson employ a technique Prescott generally scorns: statistical regression. “Progress, don't regress,” he says with a smile, quoting the slogan featured prominently on his Internet home page. Regardless of their method, Prescott is drawn to the findings and has invited Davis to Minneapolis to get a closer look at their work. But Prescott's response to Layard's argument—more complete and nuanced—conveys a sense of Prescott himself. He begins by summarizing Layard's case in a phrase: “I'm happy if I have a lot more income—than you,” he says, grinning and quite aware that he does. As to the overwork such rivalry might cause, “that just says there's a consumption externality.” Then he conveys the concept with a story. “I always tried to create a positive externality in Pittsburgh for my neighbors who had these beautiful lawns,” he jokes of his grad school days at Carnegie Mellon University. “By my having a messy lawn, their lawns looked so much better. I mowed it, but I didn't do much else with my lawn. And it gave me utility to see them happier.” He tells the story with a verbal wink, acknowledging silently that his Pittsburgh yard care externality may well have been less than zero. The conspiratorial smile changes to professorial zeal as he begins to dissect Layard's reasoning: “Suppose everybody cares about relative consumption as well as own consumption. You work out the equilibrium, it's not Pareto optimal. Let's deal with the case where everybody enters symmetrically. So it's simple to make the ordering. Well, you can make everybody better off by just putting a tax on consumption so that they work less. That's a very standard model. Now what would be the empirical evidence for and against that?” In under five minutes, Prescott has crystallized an argument, communicated it to a visitor in plain language and personal anecdote, then converted it to the idiom of economics and laid out steps for its confirmation or refutation. It's vintage Prescott: analytically brilliant, unexpectedly funny and several beats ahead of everyone else. That last bit is the essence of a conversation with the economist. When you ask him a question, it sometimes seems that his reply is off-topic; then it dawns on you that Ed Prescott is answering the question you should have asked. A pattern of surprise Prescott's willingness to entertain alternatives, to listen to critics, to incorporate the unexpected is deeply characteristic of his work. That flexibility is, in fact, the paradoxical outcome of a rigid research discipline. In setting model parameters, for instance, or reporting research results, “the investigator has no degrees of freedom,” he says. “You have to tie your hands and if there's a deviation from your predictions, you report it. You can speculate on why, but you've got to be totally honest.” Intellectual honesty also means allowing findings to modify, even subvert initial hypotheses. It happens frequently, says Prescott. Much of the work for which he's best known—theories on time inconsistency, real business cycles, the equity premium and growth theory—has been developed in an ongoing process of research and revelation. “When I work out the implications, I'm quite often surprised: The findings change my views quite dramatically,” he says. “When I did the real business cycles work with Finn Kydland, I was certain that monetary shocks were the reason the economy fluctuated with the business cycles. Our findings were just the opposite. When I did some work with Rajnish Mehra on the equity premium puzzle, I was certain that the reason for the high historical difference in the return on equity relative to debt was just a premium for bearing aggregate, nondiversifiable risk. We found it wasn't.” For time inconsistency and the impact of taxes on labor supply, as well, surprise has been an intrinsic part of the process. Future direction As striking as his labor supply findings are—and though many aspects of it remain unresolved—Prescott senses that the big theoretical questions in economic growth lie elsewhere, and he is now turning his attention to them. “I think I've had my say on labor supply,” he concludes. In his Ely lecture, he lays out three sources of economic growth: capital, labor and productivity. The first two are important in understanding why some nations remain poor while others prosper, but the central question, contends Prescott, is what determines productivity? “Given productivity, our macro models are great,” he says. “But we treat it as exogenous. We've got to have a better understanding of mapping between policies and productivity.” In other words, what can governments do to enhance productivity? Prescott's main candidates are efficient financial markets, competition among producers and trading clubs. And currently, the last is his major focus. “What is a trading club?” he asks rhetorically. “Well, first, free movement of goods between the member states. But it's much, much more than that. ...” Prescott continues at length, with a discourse ranging from Toyota factories in Wales to trade among the U.S. states in the 19th century. He speaks quickly, and as he does there is a sense that each research question he asks leads him to a dozen more, each more interesting than the last. He will travel soon to Warsaw and then Bogotá to explore these ideas with other economists and policymakers. “It's going to be fascinating to see what's happening in Poland,” he remarks. In Colombia, “the president is trying to do some good things there, and we have to go down and help out.” He's not a policymaker himself. “I leave that to other people,” he says. “I'm no good at it. My comparative advantage is working out implications of theory.” And in so doing, it seems there is just one constraint: Even for Ed Prescott, a scholar who understands labor supply dynamics as well as anyone on earth, there are only 24 hours in a day. “Time,” observes the economist, “is the most valuable resource.” 1 The two assumptions: (1) that people decide between leisure and consumption based on their relative prices, at the margin, and (2) that in a competitive market, wages are equal to their marginal product of labor. The “key equilibrium relation” also depends on the share of a nation's output due to capital. Top of document Advanced Search Glossary See also: Shrinking a deadweight loss